Chat log of Bridge Base Online session for paulg starting at: Mon May 31 18:43:35 2004 paulg: so this session is really about how to play certain card combinations ... 1Valeria: Hi all paulg: i've prepared a number of hands just to help explain some of the general techniques fleuretted: hi paulg: if you have any questions, then please ask paulg: as this is primarily a PLAY session, the kibs can talk to the table without too much worry 1Valeria->Kibitzers: bye all sceptic: diamonds are issue here I think maggie_it: how can he say 7 heart, withouth the ace and the queen paulg: because wayne trusts me .... maggie_it: lol maggie_it: ok sceptic: no it was a misclick honest lol paulg: and because my 6!d is a grand slam try katz 3: how does he know you have accepted hearts when you go to clubs after 3 hearts ? paulg: ok, let's discuss the bidding now ... maggie_it: yes better paulg: a couple of things to note paulg: wayne's 3!h is natural and forcing (after my 2NT rebid) paulg: although he may be very strong, initially it gives me the option of 3NT or 4!h paulg: clearly I will choose 4!h paulg: it does NOT give me the option of bidding my own suit now ... I should not rebid 2NT if I wanted to play in my suit katz 3: is 2nt natural ? paulg: 2NT shows 18-19 pts, balanced, natural maggie_it: is not rever- 18-20 chandaa: hi all maggie_it: ok paulg: so when I bid 4!c .... I must be showing a hand that wants to bid 4!h paulg: it is a cue bid as I have a good heart fit katz 3: he still does not know you have these hearts paulg: so wayne knows I have good hearts .... Gaya: why do u choose to bid 5!d and not 4NT ? paulg: my next cuebid is diamonds, not 4NT, because I want to hear wayne's next cuebid paulg: i believe we have spade losers ... and 4NT will not help me discover if that is true babog: how many !H does the 3!H show paulg: over 5!s ... I make a grand slam try with 6!d ... maggie_it: but how can sceptic decide to tell you spades and not say directly 4 hearts? ->babog: 5+ babog: ty Gaya: i told u he has a stopper by bidding 4!s paulg: once I have shown slam interest with 4!c ... wayne's hand is VERY strong Gaya: He BILmanager: => Club: !D!D Beg/Int Lounge - Paulg's Teaching Table now open. The subject Restricted Choice - how to PLAY those Grand Slams !! All Welcome paulg: he knows we have 29+ points paulg: so close to slam ... chandaa: how can wayne be sure ur 4!c is not natural ? katz 3: he still is missing the ace queen of trump and goes 7 paulg: my 2NT says my 4!c is not natural ... paulg: wayne knows I almost certainly have !hA ... paulg: i would not make grand slam try without !hAK paulg: he does not know about the !hQ ... true maggie_it: yes but you could have the queen of !S instead of the queen of !H paulg: ... and even so this is a poor grand slam katz 3: ok so deductive thinking fabijam: so two NT starts the actual cuebid? paulg: so we should really be in 6!h ... but that's no fun maggie_it: lol paulg: no, 2NT is natural and non-forcing paulg: but if does say that I do not have a diamond-club 2-suiter ... so when I bid 4!c it must agree hearts paulg: so, that's plenty of time for wayne to have prepared the play :) sceptic: leave entry both sides ->sceptic: come to hand and lead diamond ->sceptic: but don't play from dummy yet paulg: so this is the crux of the hand .... paulg: should wayne finesse or play for the drop? Iunatic: bridg begins NOW chandaa: 9 never babog: go for drop sceptic: help needed lucky_dom: 8 ever 9 never... Drop sceptic: I must take AK go for drop is correct I think paulg: 8 ever, 9 never .... a good thing to remember ... paulg: however my memory is really poor ... katz 3: 50/50 no magic paulg: ... and there is a technique called "Vacant Places" that can help us work out the odds at the table paulg: "Vacant Places" means that you count the number of empty spaces in the oppositions hands .... paulg: that is, cards you have not seen yet ... paulg: you ONLY count suits where you know the distribution .... or all the small cards have gone paulg: so, on this hand, we know both east and west have 2 hearts each ... paulg: all the small cards in diamonds have been played ... only the !dQ remains .... paulg: west had 2 diamonds, east has played 1 small diamond ... paulg: so we know 4 West cards, and 3 East cards ... paulg: this leaves 9 cards for West to hold the !dQ ... and 10 cards for East to hold the !dQ ... paulg: so the odds are 9:10 paulg: so East is more likely ... by a small amount ... to hold the !dQ ... paulg: so you should play for the drop paulg: i know this is complicated ... does it make sense? sceptic: I can squeeze here also I think if my A showed 4-0 split chandaa: but the same reasoning wld apply even when !d split 3-1 paul sceptic: yes makes sense fleuretted: yes it does paulg: it's just probabilities paulg: the odds just favour the drop, but by a very small amount paulg: if you want a top, then taking the finesse is a good way to try and beat the field ... paulg: as the odds are very close paulg: note that I did not count clubs in the vacant places ... as I did not know the full distribution spwdo: yes, thats how i reach all my bottoms, trying fot the top:( paulg: the other thing Wayne could have tried was to play out most of the other cards ... paulg: to try and count the other suits ... spwdo: hi maureen!H paulg: for example, if East held 8 clubs, then there are less spaces and the finesse is much better odds spwdo: sorry paulg: but on this hand he would not learn anything that helps ->spwdo: np paulg: so wayne did the right thing ... well done ->sceptic: you want to claim now paulg: as wayne said ... cashing the !dA is important in case the diamonds are 4-0 paulg: he has the intermediates to finesse twice then sceptic: hmmmmmmmm paulg: wayne, you'll get to love this hand :) paulg: has anything changed? sceptic: yes I losyt count grrrrrrrr paulg: you need the rest :) paulg: noone has shown out, hearts were 2-2 sceptic: that was more luck than judgement paulg: so the little test here was whether the !d10 makes a difference paulg: looking at the hand it's clear that it's an irrelevant card ... paulg: so it does not affect the 8 ever, 9 never argument paulg: and this hand is identical to the first hand ... paulg: is everyone still understanding this paulg: so let's move on to a new hand maggie_it: sorry all, but I really must go now.... tks a lot for the lesson have a good evenin (or day) !H sceptic: Q from Qj , no difference here to change play sceptic: :( paulg: actually, that's not true .... paulg: so let's consider the choice here sceptic: I never had J paulg: let me first try and explain this ... as it is complicated ... sceptic: only difference i thibnk paulg: and then anyone can ask questions ... paulg: the first difference is that I would not play the !dQ if I had the choice ... paulg: unlike small cards, which a defender may play randomly, honour cards tend to be kept paulg: so there are two options .... either I hold !dQ singleton .... or !dQJ paulg: if you use vacant places to compare these two situations .... paulg: then the odds appear to be 8 to 10 in favour of !dQJ paulg: however ... if I am a good defender ... then I will randomise my play from !dQJ paulg: I have freedom of choice, I can play either !dJ or !dQ .... paulg: so half the time I will play !dQ and half the time I will play !dJ ... paulg: so I have to halve the odds of holding !dQJ ... paulg: which means that the finesse if approximately 8 to 5 on paulg: so you should finesse paulg: this is known as RESTRICTED CHOICE .... paulg: .... although I prefer FREEDOM of CHOICE ... paulg: when I have !dQJ I have freedom of choice and will sometimes play the !dQ ... paulg: with !dQ singleton I will ALWAYS play it philuser1: do you mean figure first out the vacant places of both opps and then divide the vacant places of the side who had a ... philuser1: choice ( q or j) and then divide by the original sum ( bayes)? ->philuser1: yes, it it bayes paulg: as philuser1 has just pointed out to me, for the mathematicians this is Bayes Theorum paulg: so it applies to cards that are important ... paulg: which in this case are the !dQJ paulg: does this make some sense? paulg: or have I lost you all! lcmdir: makes sense :-) ->sceptic: do want to play it out and claim then bertt: where can i find notes about "vacant places" it seems a little complicated sceptic: I think I need to go over that a few times first ->bertt: look for "restricted choice" on the web bertt: tks paulg: i'll see if I can find an article or two on the web ... sceptic: thx paul paulg: a good book is "Bridge Odds for Practical Players" ... paulg: by "Kelsey & Glauert" katz 3: by ? sceptic: hm things have changed philuser1: very good that's the booklet you reminded me what i learned almost 35 years ago in edinghbourough steinar: normally with 9 cards the % play is from top with 9 cards, what you saying are, if one of the keycards missing show up, ... steinar: you should try to finesse the next one? ->steinar: yes sceptic: !C and !d losers ->steinar: odds almost 2:1 better than drop steinar: thx paulg: sorry, not a great contract :) paulg: so that cannot be the right card :) paulg: because if west has the remaining diamonds .. paulg: you will be trapped in dummy paulg: you should leave an entry back to your hand ... paulg: or play the !d8 sceptic: y i see steinar: must leave a !h in hand in case finesse fails? paulg: well done, however I would not have drawn all the cards ... paulg: and gone down 2 if the finesse failed paulg: ... paulg: but the important thing was to finesse, which you did, well done paulg: again, the !d10 is an irrelevant card ... so you should ignore it spwdo: gtg, thx paul thx maureen !H paulg: only one-time heroes drop !dQ 10 offside! paulg: so this is a simple 8 ever hand sceptic: QJ missing this time philuser1: nice that remark- counting did not make loose your spirit of humour paulg: so how can you make this? sceptic: 2 fineses paulg: yes, that's probably the best odds .... paulg: actually this hand is a little broken :) paulg: and you've done better than me .... paulg: since I forgot that the double finesse is better! sceptic: :) paulg: why is the double finesse better? paulg: well, let's consider the possible distributions .... paulg: if diamonds are 3-2, we can only win if one hand holds !dQJ paulg: or West holds !dQJx paulg: so generally we shall go down on almost all 3-2 splits .... paulg: let's consider 4-1 split philuser1: i count sure 2 spades - 6 hearts and 1 club - so i must make 4 diam ->sceptic: can you claim down 1 paulg: there are a number of 4-1 breaks ... and we can cope with most ... paulg: this hand we could make by playing !dA first, and the finessing paulg: alternatively we could play double finesse paulg: and play east for !dx singleton paulg: well, there are three small cards and two honours, so the double finesse is 3:2 better kriss_: can't I cash A, finesse once and ruff one, setting up 4th ? ->kriss_: if hearts are 2-2 ->kriss_: and you still need the double finesse ->sceptic: so this is a hand where it's worth cashing everything :) ->sceptic: i mean hearts and spades .. philuser1: now ace king spades and then finesse sceptic: RHO has 2 !S and 2!D (I hope) paulg: so are you going to finesse or play for 3-3? sceptic: there are 2 !C out sceptic: i think sceptic: and 2!d paulg: there is one club, one spade and 2 diamonds left philuser1: only chance finesse of east has QJ lost anyway sceptic: dam :( paulg: so ... vacant places ... paulg: you have seen hearts are 2-2 paulg: when west plays the !d7 ... which is the only card to give you a problem ... paulg: then west will have played 3 diamonds and east 2 diamonds paulg: you have no count on clubs and spades ... paulg: you can guess, but defenders can be sneaky against grand slams sceptic: finese it is paulg: so west has 8 vacant places and east has 9 vacant places paulg: so it looks like you should play for drop sceptic: same as first hand sceptic: drop paulg: did you see which diamonds East played? philuser1: chances 4.5 to 17 you win by finessing sceptic: i forgot paulg: he played the !d9 and the !d10 paulg: if he started with !dJT9 .... paulg: then he has freedom of choice .... paulg: ... in this case with 3 cards .... paulg: ... so we should divide his vacant places by 3 this time .... sceptic: 9: 3.3 on paulg: so west has 8 vacant places and east has 3 vacant places .... philuser1: there we are - very striking - so far i got you but how to figure out if opp is so clever to do so- there i have ... philuser1: problems -advise very welcome paulg: so you should finesse with a fair degree of confidence :) paulg: so this is the third hand again BILmanager: Great - they will be VERY nervous :-)) BILmanager: sry :-( philuser1: i refer to page 25 of testez votre bridge-les probabiltés- de roudinesco ( traduction hugh kelsey) badly explained paulg: so hopefully we all know that we should finesse now .... paulg: however it is worth knowing your opponents .... paulg: experts will generally play randomly from !dQJ ... paulg: however if you know someone ALWAYS plays the !dQ holding !dQJ ... BILmanager: I will announce it in my Newsletter BILmanager: sry - :-) paulg: then there is no freedom of choice:) philuser1: sorry chances 4.5/ 17 to loose by finessing paulg: so as defenders ... play randomly from these holdings paulg: i almost said "play randomly" .... paulg: .. but we all do that :) sceptic: :) paulg: so that's an introduction to restricted choice ... i'll try to find an article and link to it from my web site paulg: as we have some time left ... we can play some unprepared hands ... paulg: so first three into the vacant seats ... kriss_: thank you sceptic: http://terencereese.tripod.com/the_principle_of_restricted_choice.htm babog: hi all paulg: one more please sceptic: hi all :) paulg: actually wayne has been preparing and given me this uri http://terencereese.tripod.com/the_principl... paulg: e_of_restricted_choice.htm paulg: http://terencereese.tripod.com/the_principle_of_restricted_choice.htm paulg: one volunteer for north please robertn: hi all sceptic: hi robert philuser1: hi all - tough stuff guys sceptic: basic sayc p sceptic: nowt to fancy robertn: ok :) babog: ok !H robertn: typ paulg->Kibitzers: so robert should duck this and then play to ruff a diamond in dummy paulg->Kibitzers: oops, perhaps Phil should have played !hK there! philuser1: my fault babog babog: npp babog: wdop paulg: the bidding was fine ... robertn: ty sceptic: wdp paulg: and the play was good paulg: but perhaps the defence could have done a little better :) babog: ok ->babog: you were fine :) babog: thanks paulg: i'll just comment on phil's first play ... philuser1: should i have taken the firs trick wth the king after the lead of the 7 , i hought babog had doubleton and wished to ... philuser1: give him a ruff paulg: we know babog does not have !hQJ paulg: he may have doubleton ... in which case we can give him a ruff later paulg: but there is no holding where it pays to duck the !hK ... paulg: because declarer will probably not finesse again ... paulg: and, as here, it will cost a trick or two paulg: anyhow, let's move on philuser1: so take what one take and hope for a ruff later, is it that what you mean ? ->philuser1: yes ... ->philuser1: it's not clear you will ever make a ruff since partner has at most 2 spades ... ->philuser1: so it's very likely to be a lead from length rather than shortage robertn: glp lolohudson: bye robertn: wdp :) babog: wdo sceptic: ty philuser1: i am not so scetic anymore paulg: perhaps phil failed to appreciate the power of diamonds there paulg: actually do people consider okay to congratulate partner when an opponent has made an error? jimcloh: i do paulg: this is one of the ethical debates on the forums philuser1: what would the be ? robertn: Wayne played well, so ok to congratulate I think paulg: this is a good example ... Phil has failed to cash the !cA and defeat the contract sceptic: some times I am not sure if we played well or the opps defended bad so I take the middle ground and sit on the fence babog: its nto wdp win win ? compliments philuser1: i mean what should the lead be to have any chance to beat paulg: wayne has done nothing good ->philuser1: i'd have led !cA to beat it .... ->philuser1: and after winning !sA lead !cA philuser1: roger babog: well he has done nothing bad either BILmanager: !D Do Bil members actually know when it is their partners good play ot an Opps bad play that contributed to the result ... BILmanager: /!D paulg: anything it's something for each of us to decide paulg: and I think Maureen is probably right too :) paulg: so thanks to phil, robert and babog ... sceptic: thx all babog: thanks p and opp paulg: if we can have three more for one last hand and then we'll call it a night robertn: thx Paul BILmanager: !D In the BIL I wd like to think that we wd all acknowledge our partners/opps achieving a Result as per the bidding ... BILmanager: rather than being judgemental !D philuser1: tricky to congratulate an opp for a mistake BILmanager: !D Thank you Paul and Wayne !D babog: no one is perfect and we are only learning BILmanager: !D if you can recognise that it was a mistake maybe you are too good a player to be in the BIL !? !D philuser1: thanks very interesting lesson , although was was late- which impresses me is the very regular tempo - as a great ... philuser1: musician ->philuser1: thankyou ->philuser1: can u leave seat for others ->babog: can you leave seat - thx silhouette: maybe we saw that one but will not be able to see the next one ? so stay humble and silent .. paulg: so three more volunteers please sceptic: jump in dont be shy sceptic: hi all steinar: hi all paulg: welcome all sceptic: basic sayc p pls ->lolohudson: good pass:) ->sceptic: can you not spare a higher card to encourage! sceptic: yes :( ->sceptic: club discard is best on trump steinar: wdp paulg: well played everyone ... paulg: so I think that's +990 to EW paulg: and it's nice to see some real expert bridge at the table paulg: actually I'm serious ... since I think experts would end up with the same result ... paulg: steinar's jump to 4!s is good ... paulg: and wayne's double is mandatory ... paulg: for all he knows steinar may have a very weak hand ... paulg: and he has a good takeout double with lots of potential tricks philuser1: 2 spades- 4 spades in rder opps can never find a fit hearts ? paulg: lois's pass of the double is what most experts do nowadays with balanced hand paulg: a bid at the 5-level is to make ... and this looks unlikely paulg: so I think most players would pass 4!s-X lolohudson: losing trick count showed 4 spade bid ok paulg: unfortunately cartblue has a very distribution hand and played it well to make 11 tricks paulg: so this looks like the "normal" result ... although +990 is not normal that often! paulg: so that's it for this evening .... lolohudson: thank you paulg: next week we'll start in the CHAT ROOM and play a hand together sceptic: thanks paul, that was very interesting kyno40: thank you Paul BILmanager: !D Thank Paul and thank you Wayne !D babog: thanks Paul paulg: thanks wayne, and all our volunteers ! kyno40: sorry and Wayne paulg: ttfn